“Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better.”

— Samuel Beckett

Scenarios

“If You’re Here…” Guidance Specific situations. Specific navigation. No guarantees. Just orientation.

Scenario 1: Everyone is Acting Rationally, Yet It Fails

You’re in:  A collective irrationality PI

The pattern
Each actor makes rational decisions based on their position, incentives, and constraints. The collective outcome is irrational.

Navigate by

  1. Perspective switching: See all rational positions
  2. Don’t blame individuals – they’re trapped too
  3. Look for structural incentives, not personal failings

Expect
No individual can fix this. The structure produces the outcome.

Example
AI arms race. Every lab acts rationally (don’t fall behind). Collectively: Race toward risk.

Scenario 2: The Solution Makes It Worse

You’re in:  A self-strengthening PI

The pattern
Your attempts to solve the problem amplify it. The harder you try, the worse it gets.

Navigate by

  1. Stop doing “more of the same”
  2. Document the pattern clearly
  3. Accept you might need to live with it

Expect
Fighting it directly amplifies it. Sometimes the best move is no move.

Example
Security measures create new attack vectors. More security = more vulnerabilities.

Scenario 3: You Know What’s Right, But Can’t Do It

You’re in: A structural constraint PI

The pattern
You see the correct action. The structure prevents it. Doing “the right thing” would destroy your position.

Navigate by

  1. Accept the asymmetry (others have different constraints)
  2. Find small movements within constraints
  3. Don’t wait for “the right time” – it won’t come

Expect
Perfect action isn’t available. Imperfect action might be.

Example
Corporate sustainability vs. fiduciary duty. You know what’s right. The structure punishes it.

Scenario 4: Transparency Backfires

You’re in:  An information paradox PI

The pattern
More information creates more problems. Honesty accelerates the crisis.

Navigate by

  1. Recognize when more info creates more problems
  2. Strategic opacity might be necessary
  3. This isn’t lying – it’s structural navigation

    Expect
    Honesty isn’t always the path. Context matters.

    Example
    AI capabilities: Publish research (transparency) or enable adversaries (security). Both. Simultaneously.

    Scenario 5: The Harder You Try, The Worse It Gets

    You’re in: An effort paradox PI

    The pattern
    Increased effort produces decreased results. Trying harder guarantees failure.

    Navigate by

    1. Step back
    2. Try the opposite (less effort, different direction)
    3. Error navigation over perfection seeking

      Expect
      Less effort might work better. Counterintuitive, but structural.

      Example
      Work-life balance: The harder you try to “have it all,” the less you have of anything.

      Scenario 6: Power Concentrates Despite Good Intentions

      You’re in:  A structural asymmetry PI

      The pattern
      Designed for equality. Results in concentration. Good intentions, predictable outcome.

      Navigate by

      1. Recognize the architecture (how does structure reward/punish?)
      2. Don’t confuse individual goodness with structural outcomes
      3. Design for constraints, not ideals

      Expect
      Intention doesn’t override structure. Ever.

      Example
      Platform economics: “Democratize access.” Result: Winner-takes-all markets.

      Scenario 7: Security Measures Create New Vulnerabilities

      You’re in: A safety paradox PI

      The pattern
      “The safer, the more dangerous.” Every security measure opens new attack vectors.

      Navigate by

      1. Name the paradox explicitly
      2. Price in the new risks
      3. Navigate between extremes (perfect security = perfect brittleness)

      Expect
      “The safer, the more dangerous” isn’t pessimism. It’s observation.

      Example
      Monocultures (biological, technical, cognitive): Efficient until one shock kills everything.

      Scenario 8: Your Success Creates Your Failure

      You’re in A: success-driven PI

      The pattern
       What made you successful becomes what destroys you. The winning strategy contains its own defeat.

      Navigate by

      1. Recognize the lifecycle (success → dominance → rigidity → collapse)
      2. Don’t protect the past strategy – it’s already dead
      3. Error navigation: try new approaches before forced toExpect

      Expect
      Your advantage is temporary. Structure guarantees it.

      Example
      Kodak invented digital photography. Digital photography killed Kodak. The structure doesn’t care about justice.

      Scenario 9: Agreement on Problems, No Action on Solutions

      You’re in: A coordination failure PI

      The pattern
      Everyone agrees on the problem. No one acts. Rational individually, catastrophic collectively.

      Navigate by

      1. Accept that “raising awareness” changes nothing
      2. Look for structural changes, not appeals to conscience
      3. Small, asymmetric moves might matter more than big, symmetric ones

      Expect
      Understanding doesn’t equal action. Structure beats knowledge.

      Example
      Climate change. Perfect consensus on problem. Perfect inaction on solution. The structure doesn’t reward the first mover.

      Scenario 10: The Rules Produce What They Prohibit

      You’re in:  A regulatory paradox PI

      The pattern
       The rule against X creates incentives for X. Prohibition strengthens what it aims to eliminate.

      Navigate by

      1. Recognize second-order effects
      2. Don’t assume rules produce intended outcomes
      3. Sometimes “no rule” is better than “bad rule”

      Expect
      Well-intentioned rules can make things worse. Structure over intention.

      Example
      Popper’s tolerance paradox: Tolerating intolerance strengthens intolerance. Not tolerating it proves the intolerant right. The structure is the trap.

      See also:

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